Quarterly Investment Spikes Predict Stock Returns
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Quant Buffet native backtest IDEEdit and run Quant Buffet Python for Quarterly Investment Spikes Predict Stock Returns in the browser. Results update live with equity, drawdown, and metrics charts. Allowed: backtest.data, backtest.engine, backtest.metrics, numpy, pandas. Define ASSETS and make_on_day(prices). Shortcut: Ctrl+Enter. API docs →
Quant Buffet syntax cheat sheet (copy / insert)
Paste these fragments into the editor. The sandbox rejects QuantConnect, os, and network libraries.
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from backtest.data import load_daily_prices
from backtest.engine import EngineConfig, PortfolioEngine
from backtest.metrics import compute_metricsASSETS = ["SPY", "QQQ", "TLT", "GLD", "BIL"]def make_on_day(prices: pd.DataFrame):
cols = [c for c in ASSETS if c in prices.columns]
sma = prices[cols].rolling(200, min_periods=200).mean()
state = {"last": None}
def on_day(engine: PortfolioEngine, dt: pd.Timestamp) -> None:
if sma.loc[dt].isna().all():
return
key = (dt.year, dt.month)
if state["last"] == key:
return
state["last"] = key
long = [
s for s in cols
if pd.notna(prices.at[dt, s]) and pd.notna(sma.at[dt, s])
and prices.at[dt, s] > sma.at[dt, s]
]
weights = {} if not long else {s: 1.0 / len(long) for s in long}
engine.set_target_weights(dt, weights)
ready = sma.dropna(how="all").index.min() if sma.notna().any().any() else None
return on_day, readyengine.set_target_weights(dt, {"SPY": 0.60, "BIL": 0.40})Live backtest performance
Export to your platform
Transform Quant Buffet lab code (ASSETS + make_on_day / PortfolioEngine) into native classes for a third-party IDE — then copy and paste.
# Generated from Quant Buffet → QuantConnect LEAN
# Strategy: Quarterly Investment Spikes Predict Stock Returns
# Detected pattern: SMA trend
# Source uses Quant Buffet lab APIs (ASSETS + make_on_day / PortfolioEngine).
# Review fees, data, and risk before live trading — educational export only.
from AlgorithmImports import *
class QuantBuffetExport(QCAlgorithm):
def Initialize(self):
self.SetStartDate(2010, 1, 1)
self.SetCash(100000)
tickers = ["SPY", "TLT", "GLD", "BIL"]
self.symbols = []
for t in tickers:
if "-" in t: # crypto proxy e.g. BTC-USD
self.symbols.append(self.AddCrypto(t.replace("-USD", ""), Resolution.Daily).Symbol)
else:
self.symbols.append(self.AddEquity(t, Resolution.Daily).Symbol)
self.Schedule.On(
self.DateRules.MonthStart(self.symbols[0]),
self.TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen(self.symbols[0], 30),
self.Rebalance,
)
# Logic: Long assets where close > SMA(200); equal-weight; monthly.
def Rebalance(self):
longs = []
for symbol in self.symbols:
hist = self.History(symbol, 200 + 5, Resolution.Daily)
if hist.empty: continue
close = hist["close"].unstack(level=0).iloc[:, 0] if hasattr(hist["close"], "unstack") else hist["close"]
if len(close) < 200: continue
if float(close.iloc[-1]) > float(close.iloc[-200:].mean()):
longs.append(symbol)
weight = 1.0 / len(longs) if longs else 0.0
for symbol in self.symbols:
self.SetHoldings(symbol, weight if symbol in longs else 0.0)
Exported code uses the platform’s native classes and libraries. Install dependencies in your third-party IDE, then run. Validate before live trading.
Academic paper
Quarterly Investment Spikes, Stock Returns and the Investment Factor
Michela Altieri; Jan Schnitzler
- ITLibera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli
- ?Luiss Guido Carli
- Grenoble Ecole de Management
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3942428
Strategy in a nutshell
Universe: US common stocks (CRSP, share codes 10 & 11). Exclude small or irregular reporters. Compute Q4-spike (qspike) = Q4 capex ÷ average of prior 3 quarters. Each month, sort firms by qspike (from 6 months prior) into Low, Mid, High groups. Long Low, short High (value-weighted, monthly rebalanced).
Economic rationale
High Q4 investment spikes signal agency-driven overinvestment, as managers rush to exhaust budgets, leading to future underperformance. Low qspike firms avoid such inefficiencies, producing superior returns. The pattern reflects agency conflict and capital misallocation effects.