Does Investor Sentiment Influence South African ETF Flows During Different Market Conditions?

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Edit and run Quant Buffet Python for Does Investor Sentiment Influence South African ETF Flows During Different Market Conditions? in the browser. Results update live with equity, drawdown, and metrics charts. Allowed: backtest.data, backtest.engine, backtest.metrics, numpy, pandas. Define ASSETS and make_on_day(prices). Shortcut: Ctrl+Enter. API docs →

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IDE · 40 lines
Quant Buffet syntax cheat sheet (copy / insert)

Paste these fragments into the editor. The sandbox rejects QuantConnect, os, and network libraries.

Required imports
Only these libraries are allowed in the sandbox.
from __future__ import annotations

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

from backtest.data import load_daily_prices
from backtest.engine import EngineConfig, PortfolioEngine
from backtest.metrics import compute_metrics
ASSETS list (whitelisted ETFs)
Module-level list. Tickers must be in the Quant Buffet whitelist.
ASSETS = ["SPY", "QQQ", "TLT", "GLD", "BIL"]
make_on_day contract
Must return (on_day, ready). on_day calls engine.set_target_weights.
def make_on_day(prices: pd.DataFrame):
    cols = [c for c in ASSETS if c in prices.columns]
    sma = prices[cols].rolling(200, min_periods=200).mean()
    state = {"last": None}

    def on_day(engine: PortfolioEngine, dt: pd.Timestamp) -> None:
        if sma.loc[dt].isna().all():
            return
        key = (dt.year, dt.month)
        if state["last"] == key:
            return
        state["last"] = key
        long = [
            s for s in cols
            if pd.notna(prices.at[dt, s]) and pd.notna(sma.at[dt, s])
            and prices.at[dt, s] > sma.at[dt, s]
        ]
        weights = {} if not long else {s: 1.0 / len(long) for s in long}
        engine.set_target_weights(dt, weights)

    ready = sma.dropna(how="all").index.min() if sma.notna().any().any() else None
    return on_day, ready
Set target weights
Weights should sum to about 1.0. Empty dict = 100% cash.
engine.set_target_weights(dt, {"SPY": 0.60, "BIL": 0.40})

Live backtest performance

CAGR
6.06%
Sharpe
0.45
Max DD
-42.57%
Vol
15.80%
Sortino
0.68
Beta
0.65

Showing saved draft baseline until you re-run.

Equity curve (indexed = 100)

Accent = strategy · dashed grey = buy-and-hold benchmark

2000-102026-0887360
Drawdown
Worst -35.9%-36%
Metrics bar chart
CAGRSharpeSortinoVol|DD|Grey = baseline · Accent = live run
Monthly returns
2020-072026-08 · last 24 months

Export to your platform

Transform Quant Buffet lab code (ASSETS + make_on_day / PortfolioEngine) into native classes for a third-party IDE — then copy and paste.

Run in: QuantConnect Cloud or LEAN CLI · QCAlgorithm with Equity securities and monthly rebalance.

Detected pattern: SMA trendAssets: SPY, TLT, GLD, BIL
# Generated from Quant Buffet → QuantConnect LEAN
# Strategy: Does Investor Sentiment Influence South African ETF Flows During Different Market Conditions?
# Detected pattern: SMA trend
# Source uses Quant Buffet lab APIs (ASSETS + make_on_day / PortfolioEngine).
# Review fees, data, and risk before live trading — educational export only.

from AlgorithmImports import *


class QuantBuffetExport(QCAlgorithm):
    def Initialize(self):
        self.SetStartDate(2010, 1, 1)
        self.SetCash(100000)
        tickers = ["SPY", "TLT", "GLD", "BIL"]
        self.symbols = []
        for t in tickers:
            if "-" in t:  # crypto proxy e.g. BTC-USD
                self.symbols.append(self.AddCrypto(t.replace("-USD", ""), Resolution.Daily).Symbol)
            else:
                self.symbols.append(self.AddEquity(t, Resolution.Daily).Symbol)
        self.Schedule.On(
            self.DateRules.MonthStart(self.symbols[0]),
            self.TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen(self.symbols[0], 30),
            self.Rebalance,
        )
        # Logic: Long assets where close > SMA(200); equal-weight; monthly.

    def Rebalance(self):
        longs = []
        for symbol in self.symbols:
            hist = self.History(symbol, 200 + 5, Resolution.Daily)
            if hist.empty: continue
            close = hist["close"].unstack(level=0).iloc[:, 0] if hasattr(hist["close"], "unstack") else hist["close"]
            if len(close) < 200: continue
            if float(close.iloc[-1]) > float(close.iloc[-200:].mean()):
                longs.append(symbol)
        weight = 1.0 / len(longs) if longs else 0.0
        for symbol in self.symbols:
            self.SetHoldings(symbol, weight if symbol in longs else 0.0)

Exported code uses the platform’s native classes and libraries. Install dependencies in your third-party IDE, then run. Validate before live trading.

Academic paper

Does Investor Sentiment Influence South African ETF Flows During Different Market Conditions?

AuthorsPaidamoyo Aurleen Shenjere; Suné Ferreira-Schenk; Fabian Moodley

InstituteNorth-West University

Teaser

Hold each liquid ETF only when its price is above a long SMA; equal-weight the longs, cash otherwise. Universe: XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY, XLC, XLRE. Parameters: sma_days=200; rebalance=monthly. Rebalanced on the engine's template schedule with 5 bps commission and 2 bps slippage. Because the paper's primary signal (ML, sentiment, or proprietary data) is not available in our public ETF engine, this draft uses a liquid ETF rule that preserves the paper's economic theme rather th

Strategy in a nutshell

The exponential growth in popularity of ETFs over the last three decades has solidified ETFs as an essential component of many investors’ portfolios. Investor sentiment is one of the factors that influence market returns of ETFs during times of market volatility. This article highlights the gap in the literature by examining the role sentiment plays in ETF volatility and providing a more comprehensive understanding of how sentiment interacts with market conditions to affect ETF pricing in the South African context. This article aims to determine the effect of investor sentiment on JSE-listed ETF returns under changing market conditions. The study followed a quantitative methodology using monthly closing prices of seven JSE ETFs and an investor sentiment index. A sample period from October

Economic rationale

Trend filters exploit persistent serial correlation in asset returns and reduce exposure when prices fall below a long-horizon average, cutting left-tail risk. Related evidence from “Does Investor Sentiment Influence South African ETF Flows During Different Market Conditions?”: The exponential growth in popularity of ETFs over the last three decades has solidified ETFs as an essential component of many investors’ portfolios. Investor sentiment is one of the factors that influence market returns of ETFs during times of market volatility. This article highlights the gap in the literature by examining the role sentiment plays in ETF volatility and providing a more comprehensive understanding of how sentiment interacts with market conditions to affect ETF pricing in the So

Backtest performance

Annualised return6.06%
Volatility15.80%
Beta0.65
Sharpe ratio0.45
Sortino ratio0.68
Maximum drawdown-42.57%