multi-asset · Global · multi-asset · Monthly · Global Free

Agnostic Risk Parity: Taming Known and Unknown-Unknowns

Onsite backtest IDE

Quant Buffet native backtest IDE

Edit and run Quant Buffet Python for Agnostic Risk Parity: Taming Known and Unknown-Unknowns in the browser. Results update live with equity, drawdown, and metrics charts. Allowed: backtest.data, backtest.engine, backtest.metrics, numpy, pandas. Define ASSETS and make_on_day(prices). Shortcut: Ctrl+Enter. API docs →

IDE · 40 lines

"""
Quant Buffet interactive lab — agnostic-risk-parity-taming-known-and-unknown-unknowns
Allowed: backtest.data / backtest.engine / backtest.metrics, numpy, pandas.
Required: ASSETS = [...] and def make_on_day(prices): -> (on_day, ready)
"""
from __future__ import annotations

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

from backtest.data import load_daily_prices
from backtest.engine import EngineConfig, PortfolioEngine
from backtest.metrics import compute_metrics

ASSETS = ['SPY', 'EFA', 'EEM', 'VNQ', 'DBC', 'GLD', 'TLT', 'IEF', 'HYG']
VOL_LOOKBACK = 63

def make_on_day(prices: pd.DataFrame):
    cols = [c for c in ASSETS if c in prices.columns]
    rets = prices[cols].pct_change()
    vol = rets.rolling(VOL_LOOKBACK, min_periods=VOL_LOOKBACK).std() * np.sqrt(252)
    state = {"last": None}

def on_day(engine: PortfolioEngine, dt: pd.Timestamp) -> None:
        key = (dt.year, dt.month)
        if state["last"] == key:
            return
        state["last"] = key
        inv = {
            s: 1.0 / float(vol.at[dt, s])
            for s in cols
            if pd.notna(vol.at[dt, s]) and vol.at[dt, s] > 1e-8
        }
        total = sum(inv.values())
        weights = {k: v / total for k, v in inv.items()} if total > 0 else {}
        engine.set_target_weights(dt, weights)

ready = vol.dropna(how="all").index.min() if vol.notna().any().any() else None
    return on_day, ready

Quant Buffet syntax cheat sheet (copy / insert)

Paste these fragments into the editor. The sandbox rejects QuantConnect, os, and network libraries.

Required imports

Only these libraries are allowed in the sandbox.

from __future__ import annotations

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

from backtest.data import load_daily_prices
from backtest.engine import EngineConfig, PortfolioEngine
from backtest.metrics import compute_metrics

ASSETS list (whitelisted ETFs)

Module-level list. Tickers must be in the Quant Buffet whitelist.

ASSETS = ["SPY", "QQQ", "TLT", "GLD", "BIL"]

make_on_day contract

Must return (on_day, ready). on_day calls engine.set_target_weights.

def make_on_day(prices: pd.DataFrame):
    cols = [c for c in ASSETS if c in prices.columns]
    sma = prices[cols].rolling(200, min_periods=200).mean()
    state = {"last": None}

    def on_day(engine: PortfolioEngine, dt: pd.Timestamp) -> None:
        if sma.loc[dt].isna().all():
            return
        key = (dt.year, dt.month)
        if state["last"] == key:
            return
        state["last"] = key
        long = [
            s for s in cols
            if pd.notna(prices.at[dt, s]) and pd.notna(sma.at[dt, s])
            and prices.at[dt, s] > sma.at[dt, s]
        ]
        weights = {} if not long else {s: 1.0 / len(long) for s in long}
        engine.set_target_weights(dt, weights)

    ready = sma.dropna(how="all").index.min() if sma.notna().any().any() else None
    return on_day, ready

Set target weights

Weights should sum to about 1.0. Empty dict = 100% cash.

engine.set_target_weights(dt, {"SPY": 0.60, "BIL": 0.40})

Live backtest performance

CAGR

4.43%

Sharpe

0.47

Max DD

-44.85%

Vol

10.47%

Sortino

0.72

Beta

0.42

Showing saved draft baseline until you re-run.

Equity curve (indexed = 100)

Accent = strategy · dashed grey = buy-and-hold benchmark

Drawdown

Metrics bar chart

Monthly returns

Export to your platform

Transform Quant Buffet lab code (ASSETS + make_on_day / PortfolioEngine) into native classes for a third-party IDE — then copy and paste.

Target platform

Run in: QuantConnect Cloud or LEAN CLI · QCAlgorithm with Equity securities and monthly rebalance.

Detected pattern: Custom / hybridAssets: SPY, TLT, GLD, BIL

# Generated from Quant Buffet → QuantConnect LEAN
# Strategy: Agnostic Risk Parity: Taming Known and Unknown-Unknowns
# Detected pattern: Custom / hybrid
# Source uses Quant Buffet lab APIs (ASSETS + make_on_day / PortfolioEngine).
# Review fees, data, and risk before live trading — educational export only.

from AlgorithmImports import *


class QuantBuffetExport(QCAlgorithm):
    def Initialize(self):
        self.SetStartDate(2010, 1, 1)
        self.SetCash(100000)
        tickers = ["SPY", "TLT", "GLD", "BIL"]
        self.symbols = []
        for t in tickers:
            if "-" in t:  # crypto proxy e.g. BTC-USD
                self.symbols.append(self.AddCrypto(t.replace("-USD", ""), Resolution.Daily).Symbol)
            else:
                self.symbols.append(self.AddEquity(t, Resolution.Daily).Symbol)
        self.Schedule.On(
            self.DateRules.MonthStart(self.symbols[0]),
            self.TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen(self.symbols[0], 30),
            self.Rebalance,
        )
        # Logic: Custom Quant Buffet logic — adapt the signal block to match your lab on_day().

    def Rebalance(self):
        # Pattern: custom — Custom Quant Buffet logic — adapt the signal block to match your lab on_day().
        # Default: equal-weight. Port your make_on_day weights here via SetHoldings.
        w = 1.0 / len(self.symbols) if self.symbols else 0.0
        for symbol in self.symbols:
            self.SetHoldings(symbol, w)

Exported code uses the platform’s native classes and libraries. Install dependencies in your third-party IDE, then run. Validate before live trading.

Academic paper

Agnostic Risk Parity: Taming Known and Unknown-Unknowns

AuthorsRaphael Benichou; Yves Lempérière; Emmanuel Sérié; Julien Kockelkoren; Philip Seager; Jean-Philippe Bouchaud; Marc Potters

Paper linkhttps://arxiv.org/abs/1610.08818v1

Teaser

Allocate inversely to asset volatility so risk contributions are roughly equal. Universe: SPY, EFA, EEM, VNQ, DBC, GLD, TLT, IEF, HYG. Parameters: vol_lookback=63; rebalance=monthly. Rebalanced on the engine's template schedule with 5 bps commission and 2 bps slippage.

Strategy in a nutshell

Markowitz' celebrated optimal portfolio theory generally fails to deliver out-of-sample diversification. In this note, we propose a new portfolio construction strategy based on symmetry arguments only, leading to "Eigenrisk Parity" portfolios that achieve equal realized risk on all the principal components of the covariance matrix. This holds true for any other definition of uncorrelated factors. We then specialize our general formula to the most agnostic case where the indicators of future returns are assumed to be uncorrelated and of equal variance. This "Agnostic Risk Parity" (AGP) portfolio minimizes unknown-unknown risks generated by over-optimistic hedging of the different bets. AGP is shown to fare quite well when applied to standard technical strategies such as trend following.

Economic rationale

Equalizing risk contributions avoids concentration in the noisiest assets and stabilizes multi-asset drawdowns. Related evidence from “Agnostic Risk Parity: Taming Known and Unknown-Unknowns”: Markowitz' celebrated optimal portfolio theory generally fails to deliver out-of-sample diversification. In this note, we propose a new portfolio construction strategy based on symmetry arguments only, leading to "Eigenrisk Parity" portfolios that achieve equal realized risk on all the principal components of the covariance matrix. This holds true for any other definition of uncorrelated factors. We then specialize our general formula to the most agnostic case where the indicators of future retu

Backtest performance

Annualised return4.43%

Volatility10.47%

Beta0.42

Sharpe ratio0.47

Sortino ratio0.72

Maximum drawdown-44.85%