投资范围包括所有AMEX、NYSE和NASDAQ上市的股票,排除封闭式基金、REITs、ADRs、外国股票及价格低于5美元的股票,数据来自CRSP。在每月末,计算每只股票的累计下午回报,即从下午2:00到4:00的回报,并根据该回报将股票按十分位排序。策略为做多排名最低的十分位股票,做空排名最高的十分位股票,按等权重分配,并每月再平衡。

策略概述

投资范围包括所有AMEX、NYSE和NASDAQ的股票,股票代码为10和11。封闭式基金、REITs、ADRs、外国股票以及价格低于5美元的股票被排除。数据来自CRSP。在每月t末,对于每只股票,计算该月的累计下午回报——即在该月的每个交易日中,从下午2:00到4:00的回报。随后,根据该回报,将股票按十分位排序。做多排名最低的十分位(即当月累计下午回报最低的股票),做空排名最高的十分位(即当月累计下午回报最高的股票)。该策略按等权重分配,并每月再平衡。

策略合理性

先前的研究探讨了反转效应可能起作用的多种原因。该异常现象的主要原因之一是投资者的过度反应以及随后的短期修正。Nagel(2012)认为,股票市场中的短期反转策略回报可以被解释为提供流动性所带来的回报代理变量。根据作者(Xu)的说法,下午的时间段是流动性交易的理想时段,因为此时买卖价差较低,市场成交量较高。然而,早晨和下午的市场成交量都较大,下午的交易成本和信息不对称显著较低。

论文来源

Intraday Market Timing of Liquidity Trading and its Implication for Asset Pricing

<摘要>

我研究了流动性交易者在常规交易时间段的市场时机行为。虽然早晨和下午的股票市场都有大量成交量,但下午的买卖价差更低,激励了流动性交易者在下午进行交易。与这一观点一致,经历共同基金抛售的股票在下午表现出异常的高交易活动,这种增加的幅度与早晨和下午买卖价差差异呈正相关。更普遍地,下午的价格波动是暂时的,并很快反转。下午回报是每日和每月反转的主要驱动因素。相比之下,早晨的回报则正向预测未来的总回报。

回测表现

年化收益率9.85%
波动率8.44%
Beta0.029
夏普比率1.17
索提诺比率0.106
最大回撤N/A
胜率50%

完整python代码

from AlgorithmImports import *
# endregion

class AfternoonReversalTradingStrategy(QCAlgorithm):

    def Initialize(self):
        self.SetStartDate(2000, 1, 1)
        self.SetCash(100000)
        
        self.SetTimeZone(TimeZones.NewYork)

        self.market:Symbol = self.AddEquity("SPY", Resolution.Daily).Symbol
        
        self.selected_universe:List[FineFundamental] = []       # selected stock universe
        self.intraday_returns:Dict[Symbol, List[float]] = {}    # intraday returns for the most recent month
        self.recent_open_price:Dict[Symbol, float] = {}         # most recent intraday candle open price

        self.value_weighted_portfolio:bool = False              # False - EW; True - VW
        self.leverage:int = 3
        self.open_hour:int = 15                                 # taking open of this hourly candle
        self.close_hour:int = 16                                # taking close of this hourly candle
        self.min_intraday_return_period:int = 15                # minimum of intraday returns store for them most recent month
        self.quantile:int = 10
        self.fundamental_count:int = 500
        self.fundamental_sorting_key = lambda x: x.DollarVolume
        self.min_share_price:float = 5.
        self.required_exchanges:List[str] = ['NYS', 'NAS', 'ASE']
        self.tickers_to_ignore:List[str] = ['GME', 'NE']

        self.weight:Dict[Symbol, float] = {}            # traded weights by symbol

        self.selection_flag:bool = False
        self.rebalance_flag:bool = False
        self.Settings.MinimumOrderMarginPortfolioPercentage = 0.
        self.UniverseSettings.Resolution = Resolution.Hour
        self.AddUniverse(self.FundamentalSelectionFunction)
        self.Schedule.On(self.DateRules.MonthEnd(self.market, 1), self.TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen(self.market), self.Selection)

    def OnSecuritiesChanged(self, changes: SecurityChanges) -> None:
        for security in changes.AddedSecurities:
            symbol:Symbol = security.Symbol

            security.SetFeeModel(CustomFeeModel())
            security.SetLeverage(self.leverage)

            self.intraday_returns[symbol] = []
            self.recent_open_price[symbol] = 0
        
        for security in changes.RemovedSecurities:
            symbol:Symbol = security.Symbol
            
            if symbol in self.intraday_returns:
                del self.intraday_returns[symbol]
            if symbol in self.recent_open_price:
                del self.recent_open_price[symbol]

    def FundamentalSelectionFunction(self, fundamental: List[Fundamental]) -> List[Symbol]:
        if not self.selection_flag:
            return Universe.Unchanged

        selected:List[Fundamental] = [x for x in fundamental if x.HasFundamentalData and x.Market == 'usa' and x.AdjustedPrice >= self.min_share_price and \
            x.Symbol.Value not in self.tickers_to_ignore and not x.CompanyReference.IsREIT and x.MarketCap != 0 and x.SecurityReference.ExchangeId in self.required_exchanges]
        
        if len(selected) > self.fundamental_count:
            selected = [x for x in sorted(selected, key=self.fundamental_sorting_key, reverse=True)[:self.fundamental_count]]

        cumulative_perf:Dict[Symbol, float] = {}

        for stock in selected:
            symbol:Symbol = stock.Symbol

            if symbol in self.intraday_returns and len(self.intraday_returns[symbol]) >= self.min_intraday_return_period:
                cumulative_eq:np.ndarray = (1 + np.array(self.intraday_returns[symbol])).cumprod()
                cumulative_perf[stock] = cumulative_eq[-1] / cumulative_eq[0] - 1
                
                # reset intraday return monthly series
                self.intraday_returns[symbol] = []

        long:List[FineFundamental] = []
        short:List[FineFundamental] = []

        if len(cumulative_perf) >= self.quantile:
            sorted_by_returns:List = sorted(cumulative_perf.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)
            quantile:int = int(len(sorted_by_returns) / self.quantile)
            long = [x[0] for x in sorted_by_returns[-quantile:]]
            short = [x[0] for x in sorted_by_returns[:quantile]]

        if self.value_weighted_portfolio:
            for i, portfolio in enumerate([long, short]):
                for stock in portfolio:
                    mc_sum:float = sum([x.MarketCap for x in portfolio])
                    self.weight[stock.Symbol] = ((-1) ** i) * stock.MarketCap / mc_sum
        else:
            for i, portfolio in enumerate([long, short]):
                for stock in portfolio:
                    self.weight[stock.Symbol] = ((-1) ** i) / len(portfolio)

        # assign symbols to currently selected universe
        self.selected_universe = list(map(lambda x: x.Symbol, selected))
        self.rebalance_flag = True

        return self.selected_universe

    def OnData(self, data: Slice) -> None:
        for symbol in self.selected_universe:
            if data.ContainsKey(symbol):
                # intraday period open candle
                if self.Time.hour == self.open_hour:
                    self.recent_open_price[symbol] = data[symbol].Open

                if self.Time.hour == self.close_hour:
                    # calculate intraday return
                    if symbol in self.recent_open_price and self.recent_open_price[symbol] != 0:
                        open_price:float = self.recent_open_price[symbol]
                        intraday_return:float = data[symbol].Close / open_price - 1
                        self.recent_open_price[symbol] = 0

                        # append intraday return to monthly series
                        if symbol in self.intraday_returns:
                            self.intraday_returns[symbol].append(intraday_return)
            
        if self.Time.hour != 10:
            return

        # monthly rebalance
        if not self.rebalance_flag:
            return
        self.selection_flag = False
        self.rebalance_flag = False

        # trade execution
        portfolio:List[PortfolioTarget] = [PortfolioTarget(symbol, w) for symbol, w in self.weight.items() if symbol in data and data[symbol]]
        self.SetHoldings(portfolio, True)

        self.weight.clear()

    def Selection(self) -> None:
        # monthly rebalance
        self.selection_flag = True

# Custom fee model.
class CustomFeeModel(FeeModel):
    def GetOrderFee(self, parameters):
        fee = parameters.Security.Price * parameters.Order.AbsoluteQuantity * 0.00005
        return OrderFee(CashAmount(fee, "USD"))

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